The media operates from a starting point of hyperbole here, so it is difficult to get a handle on how major events or decisions are perceived by the general public.

The other evening, Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller, alongside Finance Minister Dr. Peter Phillips, announced a plan to address Jamaica’s crippling debt. The next day, Dr. Phillips announced $40 billion in new taxes. The opposition was so incensed, it stormed out of Parliament in protest.

There is no doubt that these two events will shape Jamaica’s future for the next several years, at least. How they will impact the population is another matter. Commentators and observers seem to be saying that the burden will fall largely on the backs of the poor and disadvantaged, as is usually the case. This prediction relates to the new taxes. The other prediction, as it relates to the deal with the IMF, is less certain.

In essence, in order to tackle its debt (which is 140 per cent of GDP), Jamaica is going to engage in a “debt exchange.” It will trade one type of debt for another (here is a good explanation, and keep in mind that these are Jamaican dollars, so $1 trillion dollars is roughly $1 billion Canadian) in order to satisfy the IMF. A delegation is currently on the island, attempting to hammer out a deal so that Jamaica can access another round of loans.

The PM said that without the debt exchange plan and the IMF deal, Jamaica faces a “dismal future.” it is already quite dismal, in fact. Here are a couple of telling statistics: According to Statin (which tracks all statistics for Jamaica), the unemployment rate in October was 13.7 per cent (in the U.S., it is around eight per cent); and inflation sits at between 7 and 8 per cent.

So how will these scenarios unfold on the ground? How will they impact working and middle-class Jamaicans, and those too vulnerable to even participate in the economy? It is hard to say. I have seen commentary ranging from apocalyptic predictions of widespread crime as people try to survive, to a more nonchalant reaction, ie nothing new to see here, let’s move on.

The article I referred to above provides a more realistic scenario: inflation rates will shift and the public sector will take a wage freeze. So people in the middle class will have less money to spend than they do now. The working poor and people of lower socio-economic strata will probably see no change or a negative downturn in their wages or their level of subsistence. They will be affected most when they go to access social services and when they have to pay more tax.

I think the bottom line is that government (and therefore everybody else) will have to do more with less, which always hits those at the lowest rung of the social ladder the hardest. Social services will be cut and NGOs will have to serve an even larger population and seek funding from international sources, which are already strapped and tightening purse strings.

It does not look good for Jamaica right now. Kind of puts a new slant on the VW commercial, doesn’t it?